Results/Incumbency Results
ECI results
Analysis · representation

Do incumbents survive?

MAHARASHTRA, 1962–2019. 15 elections tracked.

All IndiaANDHRA PRADESHARUNACHAL PRADESHASSAMBIHARCHHATTISGARHDAMAN AND DIUDELHIGOAGUJARATHARYANAHIMACHAL PRADESHJAMMU AND KASHMIRJHARKHANDKARNATAKAKERALAMADHYA PRADESHMAHARASHTRAMANIPURMEGHALAYAMIZORAMNAGALANDODISHAPUDUCHERRYPUNJABRAJASTHANSIKKIMTAMIL NADUTELANGANATRIPURAUTTAR PRADESHUTTARAKHANDWEST BENGAL
Incumbent re-election
78.38
2019 · 29 of 37
Incumbents contesting
77.08
37 of 48 seats
First-time winners
33.33
16 new faces
Turncoats
20
2 won · strike rate 10.0%
Vs previous
+33.94pp
From 44.44% in 2014

[01]Incumbent re-election rate

Share of sitting MPs/MLAs who won again, 1962–2019
  1. 2019
    78.38%
  2. 2014
    44.44%
  3. 2009
    67.74%
  4. 2004
    64.86%
  5. 1999
    53.85%
  6. 1998
    44.74%
  7. 1996
    38.24%
  8. 1991
    63.89%
  9. 1989
    61.54%
  10. 1984
    77.78%
  11. 1980
    42.86%
  12. 1977
    43.48%
  13. 1971
    90.91%
  14. 1967
    81.82%
  15. 1962
    0.0%

[02]First-time winners

Share of winners entering parliament/assembly for the first time
  1. 2019
    33.33%
  2. 2014
    41.67%
  3. 2009
    35.42%
  4. 2004
    27.08%
  5. 1999
    29.17%
  6. 1998
    33.33%
  7. 1996
    56.25%
  8. 1991
    25.0%
  9. 1989
    29.17%
  10. 1984
    35.42%
  11. 1980
    56.25%
  12. 1977
    64.58%
  13. 1971
    51.11%
  14. 1967
    55.56%
  15. 1962
    100.0%

[03]Turncoats over time

Candidates who switched parties between elections
2019 20 turncoats2 won (10.0%)
2014 8 turncoats2 won (25.0%)
2009 11 turncoats2 won (18.18%)
2004 13 turncoats3 won (23.08%)
1999 27 turncoats6 won (22.22%)
1998 8 turncoats1 won (12.5%)
1996 14 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
1991 6 turncoats2 won (33.33%)
1989 9 turncoats5 won (55.56%)
1984 15 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
1980 22 turncoats8 won (36.36%)
1977 8 turncoats4 won (50.0%)
1971 5 turncoats1 won (20.0%)
1967 8 turncoats1 won (12.5%)

[04]Incumbents contesting

How many sitting members sought re-election
2019 37 contesting29 won · 78.38% strike rate
2014 36 contesting16 won · 44.44% strike rate
2009 31 contesting21 won · 67.74% strike rate
2004 37 contesting24 won · 64.86% strike rate
1999 39 contesting21 won · 53.85% strike rate
1998 38 contesting17 won · 44.74% strike rate
1996 34 contesting13 won · 38.24% strike rate
1991 36 contesting23 won · 63.89% strike rate
1989 39 contesting24 won · 61.54% strike rate
1984 36 contesting28 won · 77.78% strike rate
1980 35 contesting15 won · 42.86% strike rate
1977 23 contesting10 won · 43.48% strike rate
1971 22 contesting20 won · 90.91% strike rate
1967 22 contesting18 won · 81.82% strike rate

[05]Computed insights

Arithmetic over the tables above, not commentary

  1. The 2019 incumbent re-election rate of 78.38% is above the historical average of 57.0%.

    78.38% vs avg 57.0%

  2. The strongest anti-incumbency wave was in 1962 — only 0.0% of incumbents survived (0 of 0).

    Lowest: 1962 at 0.0%

  3. Incumbents fared best in 1971 with a 90.91% re-election rate (20 of 22).

    Highest: 1971 at 90.91%

  4. 16 winners in 2019 (33.33%) entered parliament/assembly for the first time.

    16 first-time winners in 2019

  5. Party-switching peaked in 1999 with 27 turncoats, of whom 6 won (22.22% strike rate).

    Peak: 27 turncoats in 1999
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