Results/Incumbency Results
ECI results
Analysis · representation

Do incumbents survive?

India, 1962–2024. 16 elections tracked.

All IndiaANDHRA PRADESHARUNACHAL PRADESHASSAMBIHARCHHATTISGARHDAMAN AND DIUDELHIGOAGUJARATHARYANAHIMACHAL PRADESHJAMMU AND KASHMIRJHARKHANDKARNATAKAKERALAMADHYA PRADESHMAHARASHTRAMANIPURMEGHALAYAMIZORAMNAGALANDODISHAPUDUCHERRYPUNJABRAJASTHANSIKKIMTAMIL NADUTELANGANATRIPURAUTTAR PRADESHUTTARAKHANDWEST BENGAL
Incumbent re-election
—
2024 · 0 of 0
First-time winners
—
0 new faces
Turncoats
0
0 won · strike rate —%

[01]Incumbent re-election rate

Share of sitting MPs/MLAs who won again, 1962–2024
  1. 2019
    67.06%
  2. 2014
    42.0%
  3. 2009
    47.79%
  4. 2004
    53.94%
  5. 1999
    58.86%
  6. 1998
    53.91%
  7. 1996
    50.92%
  8. 1991
    63.24%
  9. 1989
    43.01%
  10. 1984
    64.61%
  11. 1980
    38.96%
  12. 1977
    41.9%
  13. 1971
    70.82%
  14. 1967
    76.17%
  15. 1962
    0.0%

[02]First-time winners

Share of winners entering parliament/assembly for the first time
  1. 2019
    41.44%
  2. 2014
    47.88%
  3. 2009
    44.2%
  4. 2004
    31.12%
  5. 1999
    21.18%
  6. 1998
    27.81%
  7. 1996
    44.01%
  8. 1991
    30.15%
  9. 1989
    40.26%
  10. 1984
    45.1%
  11. 1980
    48.58%
  12. 1977
    57.75%
  13. 1971
    49.23%
  14. 1967
    59.62%
  15. 1962
    100.0%

[03]Turncoats over time

Candidates who switched parties between elections
2019 195 turncoats29 won (14.87%)
2014 263 turncoats38 won (14.45%)
2009 213 turncoats30 won (14.08%)
2004 214 turncoats56 won (26.17%)
1999 235 turncoats64 won (27.23%)
1998 202 turncoats51 won (25.25%)
1996 242 turncoats49 won (20.25%)
1991 179 turncoats34 won (18.99%)
1989 164 turncoats87 won (53.05%)
1984 212 turncoats35 won (16.51%)
1980 377 turncoats78 won (20.69%)
1977 161 turncoats111 won (68.94%)
1971 124 turncoats38 won (30.65%)
1967 47 turncoats23 won (48.94%)

[04]Incumbents contesting

How many sitting members sought re-election
2019 337 contesting226 won · 67.06% strike rate
2014 400 contesting168 won · 42.0% strike rate
2009 362 contesting173 won · 47.79% strike rate
2004 419 contesting226 won · 53.94% strike rate
1999 457 contesting269 won · 58.86% strike rate
1998 460 contesting248 won · 53.91% strike rate
1996 381 contesting194 won · 50.92% strike rate
1991 408 contesting258 won · 63.24% strike rate
1989 379 contesting163 won · 43.01% strike rate
1984 356 contesting230 won · 64.61% strike rate
1980 385 contesting150 won · 38.96% strike rate
1977 327 contesting137 won · 41.9% strike rate
1971 305 contesting216 won · 70.82% strike rate
1967 235 contesting179 won · 76.17% strike rate

[05]Computed insights

Arithmetic over the tables above, not commentary

  1. The strongest anti-incumbency wave was in 1962 — only 0.0% of incumbents survived (0 of 0).

    Lowest: 1962 at 0.0%

  2. Incumbents fared best in 1967 with a 76.17% re-election rate (179 of 235).

    Highest: 1967 at 76.17%

  3. Party-switching peaked in 1980 with 377 turncoats, of whom 78 won (20.69% strike rate).

    Peak: 377 turncoats in 1980
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